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News
How the Global Spyware Industry Spiraled Out of Control
The market for commercial spyware — which allows governments to invade mobile phones and vacuum up data — is booming. Even the U.S. government is using it. The Biden administration took a public stand last year against the abuse of spyware to target human rights activists, dissidents and journalists: It blacklisted the most notorious maker of the hacking tools, the Israeli firm NSO Group.
Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R
I am stunned every time a client asks me if I am worried about the current level of reserves in the U.S. banking system. The market’s search for the level of reserves at which the system “breaks” implies that the market is worried about a repeat of the 2019 repo blowup. Such fears are misplaced. To be clear, there are risks lurking in funding markets, but they have nothing to do with the draining of reserves via QT (watching paint dry). Rather, they have to do with the draining of reserves via geopolitics (Russia responding to price caps).
Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing
FX swaps, forwards and currency swaps create forward dollar payment obligations that do not appear on balance sheets and are missing in standard debt statistics. Non-banks outside the United States owe as much as $25 trillion in such missing debt, up from $17 trillion in 2016. Non US banks owe upwards of $35 trillion. Much of this debt is very short-term and the resulting rollover needs make for dollar funding squeezes. Policy responses to such squeezes include central bank swap lines that are set in a fog, with little information about the geographic distribution of the missing debt.
As the Pentagon Fails Another Audit, Congress Wants to Spend Even More on "Defense"
The Pentagon has failed its annual audit for the fifth year in a row, an expected result that nonetheless represents something of a disappointment for an effort that officials hoped would continue steady, if incremental, year over year progress. . . . The Pentagon has failed every audit since 2018, the first audit of the department ever performed in its history.