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News
Commodity weakness destroys the inflationist narrative
Most politicians have used the “Ukraine invasion card” to justify the massive inflationary burst in 2021-2023. It does not matter if inflation was already elevated prior to the war. Supply chain disruptions, demand recovery, wage growth… Many excuses were used to justify inflation, except the only one that can make aggregate prices rise in unison, which is the creation of more units of currency well above demand. Inflationists will blame inflation on anything and everything except the only thing that makes all prices, which are measured in monetary units, rise at the same: Money supply growth rising faster than real economic output.
Germany Is Running Out of Workers, Putting Growth in Jeopardy
As his workers raced to meet a recent deadline, Andre Schulte-Suedhoff did something he hadn’t done in more than 20 years — he joined the production line at his factory near Munster and spent his weekend screwing together air-filter equipment. “That’s quite bizarre,” the 46-year-old executive said in an interview last month. But with the 200-strong workforce short of as many as 15 staff and financial penalties due if they failed to deliver, there was no other option, he said. For Schulte-Suedhoff’s family-owned firm, Schuko, and thousands of others across Germany, such bottlenecks are becoming increasingly common and increasingly damaging.
SEC says Binance and US affiliate redirected billions in customer assets to Zhao's funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission has accused Binance and Binance.US of redirecting over $12 billion in customer assets to entities controlled by Binance founder and owner Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao between 2019 and 2021. The fresh SEC allegations come as supporting evidence in a request by the agency to a federal judge to place a temporary freeze on assets, beyond customer redemptions, at Binance US.
Re: Oil/Investing - Lessons From The Oil Patch / Will Atlas Shrug?
Investing in cyclical industries, especially Commodity Cyclicals, can be a very tricky business. You can get the Micro-fundamentals right but get killed by Macroeconomic Black Swans. Conversely, you can get the Macro direction right but still get blindsided by Micro issues at the Company/Regional level and/or unexpected Geopolitical developments. This is not a post about past investment successes; rather, this is a retrospective on some of the mistakes I've seen committed and that I've committed myself over the last 20+ years investing and hedging this space