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Everything You Need to Know About Money is Now at your Fingertips
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News
Beware the New Treasury Buyers Sparking Fear in World’s Largest Bond Market
A changing of the guard among the biggest buyers of US Treasuries has Wall Street veterans bracing for further pain in the world’s largest bond market. Increasingly absent are steady-handed investors including foreign governments, US commercial banks and the Federal Reserve. In their place, hedge funds, mutual funds, insurers and pensions are piling in. Market watchers are quick to note that unlike their more price-agnostic predecessors, the new buyer base is likely to demand a heavy premium to finance Washington’s spendthrift ways, especially with debt sales set to surge as deficits swell.
Hamas, Israel, and the Collapse of the Fiat Global Order
This past weekend, the world witnessed absolute barbarism play out as Hamas agents brutally targeted Israeli civilians. The State of Israel, suffering from a historic failure to protect its residents, has predictably responded with major military operations in the Gaza strip. The result is a growing regional conflict fueled by historic feuds beyond the scale of traditional geopolitical considerations. Add to this the ongoing war in Ukraine, a less-talked-about conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the threat of renewed fighting between Kosovo and Serbia, and the world is witnessing the breakdown of a global order established by modern assumptions that are being exposed.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns this is 'the most dangerous time' for the world in decades
JPMorgan Chase delivered strong profits for the third quarter along with a stern warning Friday from its top executive about the perils the world faces from multiple threats. “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement that accompanied the bank’s earnings news release. The head of the largest U.S. bank by assets cited the ongoing war in Ukraine as well as the attacks Hamas launched on Israel last weekend that he said “may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships.”
How U.S. bank balance sheets have changed as Fed raises rates
The Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy tightening is prompting U.S. banks to slow the flow of credit and beef up cash levels after the panic in March when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. The Fed last raised its policy rate in late July, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, but the effects of the policy tightening that began in March of 2022 and expectations that rates will stay high until well into 2024 continue to work their way through the financial system. For instance, yields on the long-term U.S. government bonds that influence both how banks price credit and their customers' demand for loans have shot up by roughly a percentage point since that last Fed rate hike. Alongside that, overall U.S. commercial bank credit during the third quarter began shrinking on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than a decade, Fed data show.