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News
US consumer spending cools; labor market gradually slowing
U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years, signs of cooling demand that bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign was over. Those hopes were reinforced by other data on Thursday showing the labor market gradually easing. More Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week and the number on jobless rolls surged to a two-year high in mid-November. Though the rise in the so-called continuing claims was consistent with anecdotal evidence of slowing demand for labor, it also reflected challenges in adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations following an unprecedented surge in filings for unemployment benefits early in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fed’s Williams Expects Policy to Stay Restrictive for Some Time
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams reiterated the Fed’s benchmark lending rate is at or near its peak level and said monetary policy is “quite restrictive.” Rates are “estimated to be the most restrictive in 25 years,” Williams said on Thursday at the Bretton Woods Committee conference at the New York Fed. “I expect it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis.” Fed officials are expected to leave interest rates steady when they meet next month, giving themselves more time to evaluate the economy after raising rates aggressively from near zero in March 2022 to above 5% in July.
Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books. Investors frantically bid up the price of Treasuries, agency and mortgage debt, sparking the best month since the 1980s and igniting a powerful pan-markets rally in everything from stocks to credit to emerging markets. Even obscure cryptocurrencies, the sort of speculative, uber-risky assets that struggled when yields were soaring, posted big gains. For those bond investors bracing for a possible third straight year of losses — an unprecedented streak in the Treasuries market — the rally was desperately needed.
Gold rallies toward ‘golden cross’ after defying bearish signal
Gold futures have climbed to their highest prices since August 2020, just eight weeks after a death cross in prices signaled the potential for further weakness. That marks a shift in the market toward a bullish indicator known as a “golden cross,” which happens when a short-term moving average climbs past a long-term moving average. Gold futures were on track to soon reach that technical milestone. As of Wednesday, most-active futures GC00, 0.12% saw the 50-day moving average at $1,950.50 and its 200-day moving average at $1,953.29, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The February gold futures contract GCG24, 0.12% settled at $2,067.10 an ounce on Comex, the highest finish since Aug. 6, 2020.