From Joe
Everything You Need to Know About Money is Now at your Fingertips
I've created a library of training material to teach you how money works so that you can make more money and protect it.
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News
A White Swan Death Spiral' — 'The Black Swan' Author Nassim Taleb Warns US Faces 2008 Like Crash
Regardless of the color, Nassim Taleb is calling a swan a swan. Taleb, perhaps best known for his 2007 book "The Black Swan," is renewing his public concern about the state of the economy. A black swan is defined by Oxford Languages as "an unpredictable or unforeseen event." Taleb defined the concept a bit further, saying a black swan has three properties. To qualify, the event needs to 1) be an outlier, 2) produce extreme impact and 3) even though it's an outlier, explanations after the event occurs make the event appear predictable in hindsight.
US Property Losses Trigger 20% Drop in Japanese Bank Aozora
Japan’s Aozora Bank Ltd. became the second lender in a span of hours to surprise investors with losses tied to US commercial property, sending shares down by the limit and heightening concern over global banks’ exposure to souring real estate bets. The Tokyo-based bank, Japan’s 16th biggest by market value, said it expects to post a net loss of 28 billion yen ($191 million) for the fiscal year, compared with its previous forecast of a 24 billion yen profit. Shares sank more than 20%. Aozora’s woes echo those of New York Community Bancorp, which jolted US investors on Wednesday after slashing its dividend and stockpiling reserves due to its exposure to the office market.
Canada braces for possible wave of business bankruptcies
Thousands of Canadian small businesses face the risk of bankruptcy after the government ended pandemic-era support last month with the economy slowing at a time of high interest rates. Small firms that employ fewer than 100 people are critical to the Canadian economy as they give jobs to almost two-thirds of the country's 12 million private workers. A spike in bankruptcies, which jumped 38% in the first 11 months of 2023, would weigh on economic growth, lobby groups and economists warn. Last month, small businesses faced a deadline to repay interest-free loans of C$60,000 ($44,676) made available to each of them during the pandemic.
Treasuries Surge as Bank Stock Rout Rekindles Fed Rate-Cut Hopes
Treasury yields tumbled Thursday as a second day of declines for US financial stocks led traders to price in a more rapid pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The US five-year yield fell as much as 9 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since June. At the same time, traders priced in a larger total amount of Fed interest-rate cuts this year. Swap contracts indicated a slightly increased possibility of a March start, a day after that wager suffered a setback when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was unlikely. Bank shares extended a decline that was sparked Wednesday by a small New York bank reporting a surprise loss and cutting its dividend — fallout from US commercial property losses that are expected to deepen.